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AJ Dillon

Carolina Panthers · Running backRB3

Over 7 games last season AJ Dillon averaged 0.4 receptions and 3 yards on 12% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.8 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
0.8
0.4 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
0
Rush attempts
5.0
Rushing yards
25
Anytime TD
16%

What a realistic week looks like

53%028%112%2345678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 2 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————0.8 projected
26 wk3CLE16%2.4%11-241600.2 +0.8
26 wk2ATL6%0.0%0003-30—
26 wk1CHI10%0.0%0005280—
25 wk18WAS3%2.9%113000—
25 wk6NYG14%6.2%2218120—
25 wk5DEN15%0.0%0002120—
25 wk4TB14%0.0%0003170—
25 wk3LA7%0.0%000000—
25 wk2KC17%0.0%0003190—
25 wk1DAL13%0.0%0003100—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 9 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions0 of 90%
5+ receptions0 of 90%
7+ receptions0 of 90%
50+ receiving yards0 of 90%
75+ receiving yards0 of 90%
100+ receiving yards0 of 90%
Scored a touchdown0 of 90%

Career by season

AJ Dillon: snap share and target share by season020406080100202020212022202320252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmCarries/gmRush yds/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far30.3-0.70.34.013.7011%0.8%
202570.43.00.41.78.6012%1.3%
2023151.514.91.911.940.9251%5.6%
2022171.612.12.510.945.3749%7.9%
2021181.917.42.110.846.0841%6.0%
2020110.33.10.35.026.0217%0.8%

6 seasons of usage, 2020–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Carolina Panthers roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchDo touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4