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JH

Jimmy Horn Jr.

Carolina Panthers · Wide receiverWR depth

Over 14 games last season Jimmy Horn Jr. averaged 0.8 receptions and 8 yards on 20% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.3 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
0.3
0.5 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
8
Returning from a missed week. Players in their first game back come in about a third of a reception below recent form, so this projection is held down rather than reading his last line straight across.

What a realistic week looks like

81%014%12345678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 1 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————0.3 projected
26 wk1CHI21%2.9%100000—
25 wk19LA28%5.4%200000—
25 wk18TB31%3.3%1115000—
25 wk17SEA26%9.5%229000—
25 wk16TB22%0.0%0001250—
25 wk15NO7%5.0%117000—
25 wk13LA6%0.0%000000—
25 wk12SF22%3.7%1111000—
25 wk11ATL9%0.0%000000—
25 wk10NO21%0.0%000000—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 15 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions0 of 150%
5+ receptions0 of 150%
7+ receptions0 of 150%
50+ receiving yards0 of 150%
75+ receiving yards0 of 150%
100+ receiving yards0 of 150%
Scored a touchdown0 of 150%

Career by season

Jimmy Horn Jr.: snap share and target share by season02040608010020252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far10.00.01.0021%2.9%
2025140.87.71.2020%4.9%

2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Carolina Panthers roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4