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JC

Jalen Coker

Carolina Panthers · Wide receiverWR2

Over 12 games last season Jalen Coker averaged 3.5 receptions and 44 yards on 71% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 4.2 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
4.2
0.7 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
47
Anytime TD
34%
His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

3%09%115%217%316%413%510%67%74%83%910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 7 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk4———————4.2 projected
26 wk3CLE36%9.5%421804.9 -2.9
26 wk2ATL76%28.1%98660—
26 wk1CHI84%26.5%981382—
25 wk19LA88%32.4%1291341—
25 wk18TB92%23.3%76471—
25 wk17SEA72%9.5%22160—
25 wk16TB81%16.1%53470—
25 wk15NO68%20.0%44601—
25 wk13LA55%30.0%64741—
25 wk12SF83%14.8%43320—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 14 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions11 of 1479%
5+ receptions4 of 1429%
7+ receptions3 of 1421%
50+ receiving yards6 of 1443%
75+ receiving yards2 of 1414%
100+ receiving yards2 of 1414%
Scored a touchdown5 of 1436%

Career by season

Jalen Coker: snap share and target share by season020406080100202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far36.074.07.3265%21.4%
2025123.544.04.6471%16.8%
2024112.943.54.2266%14.8%

3 seasons of usage, 2024–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Jalen Coker sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the CAR room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole Carolina Panthers roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4