Mitchell Evans

Carolina Panthers · Tight endTE3

Over 18 games last season Mitchell Evans averaged 1.1 receptions and 10 yards on 38% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.6 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

1.6

0.6 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

16%

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 4 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.6 projected
26 wk3	CLE	27%	7.1%	3	3	36	0	0	0	1.3 +1.7
26 wk2	ATL	58%	3.1%	1	1	13	0	0	0	—
26 wk1	CHI	40%	5.9%	2	1	9	0	0	0	—
25 wk19	LA	46%	2.7%	1	0	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk18	TB	45%	6.7%	2	1	5	0	0	0	—
25 wk17	SEA	57%	9.5%	2	1	5	1	1	0	—
25 wk16	TB	30%	9.7%	3	3	23	0	0	0	—
25 wk15	NO	44%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk13	LA	53%	15.0%	3	3	20	0	0	0	—
25 wk12	SF	22%	3.7%	1	0	0	0	0	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 20 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	3 of 20	15%
5+ receptions	0 of 20	0%
7+ receptions	0 of 20	0%
50+ receiving yards	0 of 20	0%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 20	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 20	0%
Scored a touchdown	2 of 20	10%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	1.7	19.3	2.0	0	42%	5.4%
2025	18	1.1	9.5	1.4	2	38%	5.2%

2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Carolina Panthers roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Is any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4