Slate Stats › NFL › Players

XL

Xavier Legette

Carolina Panthers · Wide receiverWR3

Over 16 games last season Xavier Legette averaged 2.2 receptions and 23 yards on 66% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.4 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
1.4
0.8 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
25
Anytime TD
10%
Returning from a missed week. Players in their first game back come in about a third of a reception below recent form, so this projection is held down rather than reading his last line straight across.
His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

31%030%119%210%35%45678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 3 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk4———————1.4 projected
26 wk2ATL50%12.5%42640—
26 wk1CHI53%5.9%2000—
25 wk19LA40%10.8%4180—
25 wk18TB31%13.3%43220—
25 wk17SEA55%4.8%1130—
25 wk16TB65%9.7%31120—
25 wk15NO74%15.0%32390—
25 wk13LA67%10.0%2110—
25 wk12SF67%18.5%53220—
25 wk11ATL55%18.2%84831—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 18 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions5 of 1828%
5+ receptions1 of 186%
7+ receptions1 of 186%
50+ receiving yards3 of 1817%
75+ receiving yards2 of 1811%
100+ receiving yards0 of 180%
Scored a touchdown3 of 1817%

Career by season

Xavier Legette: snap share and target share by season020406080100202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far21.032.03.0052%9.2%
2025162.223.24.2366%14.1%
2024163.131.15.2470%17.4%

3 seasons of usage, 2024–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Carolina Panthers roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4