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Chuba Hubbard

Carolina Panthers · Running backRB1

Over 16 games last season Chuba Hubbard averaged 2.0 receptions and 15 yards on 47% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 2.8 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
2.8
0.8 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
21
Rush attempts
13.9
Rushing yards
61
Anytime TD
44%
third-down role (+0.05)
His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

10%019%122%218%313%48%55%63%78910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 5 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————2.8 projected
26 wk3CLE84%9.5%4428198202.3 +1.7
26 wk2ATL65%6.2%221112531—
26 wk1CHI71%8.8%333810492—
25 wk19LA61%10.8%421313462—
25 wk18TB45%6.7%2275100—
25 wk17SEA38%14.3%3364120—
25 wk16TB41%3.2%1176270—
25 wk15NO42%5.0%1198290—
25 wk13LA59%10.0%224117831—
25 wk12SF35%14.8%44273160—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 18 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions6 of 1833%
5+ receptions1 of 186%
7+ receptions0 of 180%
50+ receiving yards0 of 180%
75+ receiving yards0 of 180%
100+ receiving yards0 of 180%
Scored a touchdown7 of 1839%

Career by season

Chuba Hubbard: snap share and target share by season020406080100202120222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmCarries/gmRush yds/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far33.025.73.013.761.3373%8.2%
2025162.014.82.79.234.8647%8.9%
2024152.911.43.616.779.71177%11.9%
2023172.313.72.614.053.1560%8.5%
2022150.911.41.16.331.1231%5.2%
2021171.510.22.210.136.0639%6.6%

6 seasons of usage, 2021–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Chuba Hubbard sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the CAR room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole Carolina Panthers roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchDo touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4