Over 18 games last season Tommy Tremble averaged 1.7 receptions and 15 yards on 61% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 2.2 receptions.
Week 4 projection
Receptions
2.2
0.6 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
22
Anytime TD
17%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 5 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
How his role is trending
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk4
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
2.2 projected
26 wk3
CLE
48%
9.5%
4
3
41
0
2.1 +0.9
26 wk2
ATL
56%
6.2%
2
1
4
0
—
26 wk1
CHI
56%
14.7%
5
3
25
0
—
25 wk19
LA
81%
8.1%
3
3
22
0
—
25 wk18
TB
90%
13.3%
4
3
38
1
—
25 wk17
SEA
77%
4.8%
1
1
6
0
—
25 wk16
TB
43%
3.2%
1
1
6
0
—
25 wk15
NO
49%
20.0%
4
2
13
0
—
25 wk13
LA
56%
10.0%
2
1
2
0
—
25 wk12
SF
48%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 20 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
6 of 20
30%
5+ receptions
1 of 20
5%
7+ receptions
0 of 20
0%
50+ receiving yards
1 of 20
5%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 20
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 20
0%
Scored a touchdown
2 of 20
10%
Career by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Season
Games
Catches/gm
Rec yds/gm
Targets/gm
TDs, season
Snap share
Target share
2026 so far
3
2.3
23.3
3.7
0
53%
10.2%
2025
18
1.7
15.1
2.2
2
61%
8.1%
2024
12
1.9
19.5
2.7
2
67%
8.2%
2023
16
1.4
12.1
2.0
3
52%
6.7%
2022
17
1.1
10.2
1.9
3
50%
7.6%
2021
16
1.2
11.2
2.2
2
48%
6.6%
6 seasons of usage, 2021–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016