John Metchie III

Carolina Panthers · Wide receiverWR depth

Over 16 games last season John Metchie III averaged 2.1 receptions and 17 yards on 46% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.1 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

1.1

0.9 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

21%

His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 3 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.1 projected
26 wk3	CLE	56%	11.9%	5	2	19	0	0	1	0.8 +1.2
26 wk2	ATL	11%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk18	BUF	71%	18.2%	4	3	20	0	0	0	—
25 wk17	NE	76%	9.4%	3	3	41	0	0	0	—
25 wk16	NO	86%	14.7%	5	1	4	0	0	0	—
25 wk15	JAX	74%	15.6%	5	4	25	1	4	0	—
25 wk14	MIA	97%	25.0%	8	4	34	0	0	0	—
25 wk13	ATL	97%	25.8%	8	4	19	1	-2	0	—
25 wk12	BAL	86%	25.9%	7	6	65	0	0	1	—
25 wk11	NE	82%	11.5%	3	3	45	0	0	1	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 17 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	7 of 17	41%
5+ receptions	1 of 17	6%
7+ receptions	0 of 17	0%
50+ receiving yards	1 of 17	6%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 17	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 17	0%
Scored a touchdown	2 of 17	12%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	2	1.0	9.5	2.5	1	34%	6.0%
2025	16	2.1	17.1	3.0	2	46%	10.7%
2024	15	2.0	21.1	3.1	1	47%	10.2%
2023	18	1.1	11.2	1.8	0	35%	6.0%

4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Carolina Panthers roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4