Over 18 games last season Tetairoa McMillan averaged 4.2 receptions and 61 yards on 87% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 4.1 receptions.
Week 4 projection
Receptions
4.1
0.0 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
66
Anytime TD
31%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 7 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
How his role is trending
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk4
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
4.1 projected
26 wk3
CLE
95%
11.9%
5
2
17
0
4.5 -2.5
26 wk2
ATL
80%
31.2%
10
5
101
0
—
26 wk1
CHI
82%
23.5%
8
5
75
0
—
25 wk19
LA
90%
18.9%
7
5
81
0
—
25 wk18
TB
88%
20.0%
6
4
85
0
—
25 wk17
SEA
83%
19.0%
4
1
5
0
—
25 wk16
TB
87%
32.3%
10
6
73
1
—
25 wk15
NO
84%
20.0%
4
2
25
0
—
25 wk13
LA
73%
10.0%
2
1
43
1
—
25 wk12
SF
91%
25.9%
7
2
35
1
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 20 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
16 of 20
80%
5+ receptions
10 of 20
50%
7+ receptions
2 of 20
10%
50+ receiving yards
12 of 20
60%
75+ receiving yards
7 of 20
35%
100+ receiving yards
3 of 20
15%
Scored a touchdown
5 of 20
25%
Career by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Season
Games
Catches/gm
Rec yds/gm
Targets/gm
TDs, season
Snap share
Target share
2026 so far
3
4.0
64.3
7.7
0
86%
22.2%
2025
18
4.2
60.8
7.2
7
87%
25.4%
2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016