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If DeVonta Smith is out, who gets his targets?

The Philadelphia Eagles room absorbs +3.30 receptions, and Darius Cooper takes the largest single share at +0.72. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the wide receiver room.

Where the work goes

Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.

Receptions gained if DeVonta Smith sitsDarius Cooper+0.7WR 28% snapsMarquise Brown+0.7WR 22% snapsMakai Lemon+0.6WR 64% snapsDontayvion Wicks+0.5WR 76% snapsDallas Goedert+0.2TE 60% snapsZach Ertz+0.2TE 0% snapsJohnny Mundt+0.2TE 50% snapsSaquon Barkley+0.1RB 44% snapsTank Bigsby+0.1RB 22% snapsWill Shipley+0.1RB 34% snapschange in projected receptions

Every player in the room

PlayerCatches nowIf he sitsChange
DeVonta Smith WR · 92% snaps5.20—OUT
Dallas Goedert TE · 60% snaps2.802.96+0.16
Dontayvion Wicks WR · 76% snaps2.803.25+0.45
Zach Ertz TE · 0% snaps2.602.76+0.16
Makai Lemon WR · 64% snaps2.503.06+0.56
Saquon Barkley RB · 44% snaps1.401.53+0.13
Will Shipley RB · 34% snaps1.401.52+0.12
Marquise Brown WR · 22% snaps1.101.81+0.71
Johnny Mundt TE · 50% snaps1.101.26+0.16
Tank Bigsby RB · 22% snaps1.101.23+0.13
Darius Cooper WR · 28% snaps1.101.82+0.72

What the data says happens

Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.

RoomReceptions gainednt
Receivers+0.5841,53711.16
Tight ends+0.1751,0803.33
Backs+0.1131,0112.00

The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.

DeVonta Smith’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection

Cascade effects 2018–2026, paired within player, net of control · projections as-of-week with no lookahead · 2026 week 4