DeVonta Smith

Philadelphia Eagles · Wide receiverWR1

Over 18 games last season DeVonta Smith averaged 4.7 receptions and 60 yards on 85% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 5.2 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

5.2

0.4 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

29%

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 2 and 9 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	5.2 projected
26 wk3	CHI	—	32.0%	8	6	65	0	5.2 +0.8
26 wk2	TEN	88%	38.2%	13	10	117	1	—
26 wk1	WAS	95%	27.3%	6	3	53	0	—
25 wk19	SF	92%	32.4%	11	8	70	0	—
25 wk18	WAS	14%	11.8%	4	3	52	0	—
25 wk17	BUF	85%	22.7%	5	2	25	0	—
25 wk16	WAS	86%	27.6%	8	6	42	1	—
25 wk15	LV	52%	11.1%	2	2	50	0	—
25 wk14	LAC	97%	21.1%	8	4	37	0	—
25 wk13	CHI	94%	26.7%	8	5	48	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 20 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	16 of 20	80%
5+ receptions	9 of 20	45%
7+ receptions	5 of 20	25%
50+ receiving yards	12 of 20	60%
75+ receiving yards	5 of 20	25%
100+ receiving yards	3 of 20	15%
Scored a touchdown	5 of 20	25%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	6.3	78.3	9.0	1	92%	32.5%
2025	18	4.7	59.9	6.9	4	85%	25.0%
2024	17	4.9	60.2	6.2	9	88%	26.1%
2023	17	5.2	71.4	7.3	7	96%	23.9%
2022	20	5.5	69.7	7.9	8	92%	26.8%
2021	18	3.8	54.2	6.4	5	83%	22.9%

6 seasons of usage, 2021–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If DeVonta Smith sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the PHI room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Philadelphia Eagles roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4