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If Jake Ferguson is out, who gets his targets?
The Dallas Cowboys room absorbs +1.78 receptions, and Luke Schoonmaker takes the largest single share at +0.72. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the tight end room.
Where the work goes
Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.
Every player in the room
| Player | Catches now | If he sits | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb WR · 79% snaps | 5.40 | 5.47 | +0.07 |
| George Pickens WR · 82% snaps | 5.30 | 5.37 | +0.07 |
| Jake Ferguson TE · 68% snaps | 3.70 | — | OUT |
| Ryan Flournoy WR · 71% snaps | 3.10 | 3.17 | +0.07 |
| Javonte Williams RB · 76% snaps | 2.90 | 2.90 | +0.00 |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford TE · 33% snaps | 1.00 | 1.71 | +0.71 |
| KaVontae Turpin WR · 13% snaps | 1.00 | 1.07 | +0.07 |
| Tyler Goodson RB · 15% snaps | 0.60 | 0.60 | +0.00 |
| Luke Schoonmaker TE · 24% snaps | 0.60 | 1.32 | +0.72 |
| Jonathan Mingo WR · 19% snaps | 0.50 | 0.57 | +0.07 |
What the data says happens
Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.
| Room | Receptions gained | n | t |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receivers | +0.107 | 2,160 | 2.29 |
| Tight ends | +0.492 | 1,024 | 9.57 |
| Backs | -0.045 | 1,259 | -0.92 |
The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.
Jake Ferguson’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection