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JF

Jake Ferguson

Dallas Cowboys · Tight endTE1

Over 17 games last season Jake Ferguson averaged 4.8 receptions and 35 yards on 67% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 3.7 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
3.7
1.1 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
26
Anytime TD
33%
red-zone role (+0.07)

What a realistic week looks like

5%012%117%218%316%412%58%65%73%8910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 7 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————3.7 projected
26 wk3BAL69%12.5%53230013.7 -0.7
26 wk2WAS60%12.9%4443002—
26 wk1NYG76%6.7%226000—
25 wk18NYG60%8.7%215000—
25 wk17WAS29%5.6%216001—
25 wk16LAC69%12.5%4319000—
25 wk15MIN71%11.4%4216000—
25 wk14DET80%14.9%7558000—
25 wk13KC71%16.2%6536000—
25 wk12PHI69%17.1%6560110—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions14 of 1974%
5+ receptions10 of 1953%
7+ receptions5 of 1926%
50+ receiving yards5 of 1926%
75+ receiving yards2 of 1911%
100+ receiving yards0 of 190%
Scored a touchdown7 of 1937%

Career by season

Jake Ferguson: snap share and target share by season02040608010020222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far33.024.03.7368%10.7%
2025174.835.36.0867%16.5%
2024144.235.36.1065%17.4%
2023184.547.46.3875%17.0%
2022181.111.61.3240%4.0%

5 seasons of usage, 2022–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Jake Ferguson sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the DAL room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole Dallas Cowboys roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchIs any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4