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If Jalen Nailor is out, who gets his targets?

The Las Vegas Raiders room absorbs +0.93 receptions, and Tre Tucker takes the largest single share at +0.24. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the wide receiver room.

Where the work goes

Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.

Receptions gained if Jalen Nailor sitsTre Tucker+0.2WR 62% snapsJack Bech+0.2WR 37% snapsMalik Benson+0.2WR 10% snapsCody White+0.2WR 0% snapschange in projected receptions

Every player in the room

PlayerCatches nowIf he sitsChange
Brock Bowers TE · 79% snaps5.605.60+0.00
Ashton Jeanty RB · 80% snaps4.004.00+0.00
Michael Mayer TE · 84% snaps3.703.70+0.00
Tre Tucker WR · 62% snaps3.203.44+0.24
Jack Bech WR · 37% snaps1.802.03+0.23
Jalen Nailor WR · 59% snaps1.70—OUT
Malik Benson WR · 10% snaps0.801.03+0.23
Cody White WR · 0% snaps0.700.93+0.23
Ian Thomas TE · 38% snaps0.700.70+0.00

What the data says happens

Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.

RoomReceptions gainednt
Receivers+0.5841,53711.16
Tight ends+0.1751,0803.33
Backs+0.1131,0112.00

The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.

Jalen Nailor’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection

Cascade effects 2018–2026, paired within player, net of control · projections as-of-week with no lookahead · 2026 week 4