Jalen Nailor

Las Vegas Raiders · Wide receiverWR2

Over 17 games last season Jalen Nailor averaged 1.7 receptions and 26 yards on 65% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.7 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

1.7

0.0 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

12%

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 4 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.7 projected
26 wk3	NO	57%	10.0%	3	1	16	0	0	0	2.4 -1.4
26 wk2	LAC	60%	10.3%	3	1	9	0	0	0	—
26 wk1	MIA	60%	17.2%	5	3	27	0	0	0	—
25 wk18	GB	75%	10.0%	3	3	49	0	0	0	—
25 wk17	DET	43%	7.1%	1	0	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk16	NYG	62%	8.7%	2	0	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk15	DAL	51%	20.8%	5	3	47	1	-2	2	—
25 wk14	WAS	58%	13.0%	3	3	30	0	0	0	—
25 wk13	SEA	69%	3.4%	1	0	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk12	GB	45%	5.6%	1	0	0	0	0	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	8 of 19	42%
5+ receptions	1 of 19	5%
7+ receptions	0 of 19	0%
50+ receiving yards	1 of 19	5%
75+ receiving yards	1 of 19	5%
100+ receiving yards	1 of 19	5%
Scored a touchdown	3 of 19	16%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	1.7	17.3	3.7	0	59%	12.5%
2025	17	1.7	26.1	3.1	4	65%	11.7%
2024	18	1.7	24.8	2.6	6	53%	8.6%
2023	6	0.5	4.8	1.0	0	27%	3.0%
2022	9	1.0	19.9	1.4	1	14%	4.4%

5 seasons of usage, 2022–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Jalen Nailor sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the LV room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Las Vegas Raiders roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4