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If Jaxon Smith-Njigba is out, who gets his targets?

The Seattle Seahawks room absorbs +3.51 receptions, and Cooper Kupp takes the largest single share at +0.73. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the wide receiver room.

Where the work goes

Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.

Receptions gained if Jaxon Smith-Njigba sitsCooper Kupp+0.7WR 63% snapsTory Horton+0.7WR 26% snapsMontorie Foster Jr+0.7WR 0% snapsRashid Shaheed+0.5WR 56% snapsAJ Barner+0.2TE 86% snapsElijah Arroyo+0.1TE 23% snapsJadarian Price+0.1RB 37% snapsGeorge Holani+0.1RB 36% snapsEmanuel Wilson+0.1RB 28% snapsBrady Russell+0.1RB 32% snapschange in projected receptions

Every player in the room

PlayerCatches nowIf he sitsChange
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · 81% snaps7.00—OUT
AJ Barner TE · 86% snaps3.203.36+0.16
Cooper Kupp WR · 63% snaps2.903.63+0.73
Rashid Shaheed WR · 56% snaps2.603.11+0.51
Tory Horton WR · 26% snaps1.602.33+0.73
Jadarian Price RB · 37% snaps1.201.33+0.13
George Holani RB · 36% snaps1.101.23+0.13
Emanuel Wilson RB · 28% snaps0.800.93+0.13
Brady Russell RB · 32% snaps0.800.93+0.13
Elijah Arroyo TE · 23% snaps0.600.75+0.15
Montorie Foster Jr WR · 0% snaps0.601.31+0.71

What the data says happens

Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.

RoomReceptions gainednt
Receivers+0.5841,53711.16
Tight ends+0.1751,0803.33
Backs+0.1131,0112.00

The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection

Cascade effects 2018–2026, paired within player, net of control · projections as-of-week with no lookahead · 2026 week 4