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Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Seattle Seahawks · Wide receiverWR1

Over 20 games last season Jaxon Smith-Njigba averaged 6.8 receptions and 100 yards on 77% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 7.0 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
7.0
0.2 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
91
Anytime TD
58%
red-zone AND third-down role (+0.11)

What a realistic week looks like

02%14%27%310%413%513%613%711%89%97%105%113%122%13Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 3 and 11 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk4———————7.0 projected
26 wk3WAS87%31.1%141012826.4 +3.6
26 wk2ARI67%42.3%1191553—
26 wk1NE90%45.8%1181221—
25 wk22NE69%27.8%104270—
25 wk21LA82%35.3%12101531—
25 wk20SF72%25.0%43191—
25 wk18SF83%30.8%86840—
25 wk17CAR89%46.2%129720—
25 wk16LA96%41.9%138961—
25 wk15IND92%27.3%971130—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 22 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions21 of 2295%
5+ receptions18 of 2282%
7+ receptions15 of 2268%
50+ receiving yards19 of 2286%
75+ receiving yards18 of 2282%
100+ receiving yards12 of 2255%
Scored a touchdown12 of 2255%

Career by season

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: snap share and target share by season0204060801002023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far39.0135.012.0681%39.8%
2025206.899.69.41277%35.7%
2024175.966.58.1686%23.8%
2023173.736.95.5465%17.5%

4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Jaxon Smith-Njigba sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the SEA room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole Seattle Seahawks roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4