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If Mike Gesicki is out, who gets his targets?
The Cincinnati Bengals room absorbs +2.65 receptions, and Drew Sample takes the largest single share at +1.00. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the tight end room.
Where the work goes
Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.
Every player in the room
| Player | Catches now | If he sits | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase WR · 94% snaps | 6.60 | 6.67 | +0.07 |
| Tee Higgins WR · 79% snaps | 4.30 | 4.37 | +0.07 |
| Chase Brown RB · 0% snaps | 3.50 | 3.50 | +0.00 |
| Mike Gesicki TE · 40% snaps | 2.30 | — | OUT |
| Andrei Iosivas WR · 57% snaps | 1.60 | 1.67 | +0.07 |
| Dohnte Meyers WR · 30% snaps | 1.50 | 1.57 | +0.07 |
| Samaje Perine RB · 0% snaps | 1.40 | 1.40 | +0.00 |
| Tanner Hudson TE · 16% snaps | 1.40 | 1.86 | +0.46 |
| Drew Sample TE · 59% snaps | 1.20 | 2.20 | +1.00 |
| Colbie Young WR · 11% snaps | 0.70 | 0.77 | +0.07 |
| Erick All TE · 31% snaps | 0.60 | 1.44 | +0.84 |
What the data says happens
Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.
| Room | Receptions gained | n | t |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receivers | +0.107 | 2,160 | 2.29 |
| Tight ends | +0.492 | 1,024 | 9.57 |
| Backs | -0.045 | 1,259 | -0.92 |
The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.
Mike Gesicki’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection