Mike Gesicki

Cincinnati Bengals · Tight endTE1

Over 13 games last season Mike Gesicki averaged 2.2 receptions and 24 yards on 39% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 2.3 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

2.3

0.2 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

34%

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 5 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.3 projected
26 wk3	PIT	51%	8.1%	3	3	37	1	2.1 +0.9
26 wk2	HOU	35%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	—
26 wk1	TB	33%	20.6%	7	5	78	1	—
25 wk18	CLE	38%	5.3%	2	2	13	0	—
25 wk17	ARI	23%	6.1%	2	2	47	0	—
25 wk16	MIA	48%	12.9%	4	3	35	1	—
25 wk15	BAL	57%	5.6%	2	1	11	0	—
25 wk14	BUF	42%	16.7%	6	6	86	1	—
25 wk13	BAL	28%	9.1%	4	2	19	0	—
25 wk12	NE	43%	17.6%	6	4	35	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 15 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	5 of 15	33%
5+ receptions	2 of 15	13%
7+ receptions	0 of 15	0%
50+ receiving yards	2 of 15	13%
75+ receiving yards	2 of 15	13%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 15	0%
Scored a touchdown	3 of 15	20%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	2.7	38.3	3.3	2	40%	9.6%
2025	13	2.2	23.6	3.2	2	39%	9.5%
2024	17	3.8	39.1	4.9	2	45%	12.4%
2023	17	1.7	14.4	2.6	2	50%	8.5%
2022	18	1.9	20.9	3.2	6	44%	9.4%
2021	17	4.3	45.9	6.6	2	71%	18.4%
2020	15	3.5	46.9	5.7	6	62%	16.2%
2019	16	3.2	35.6	5.6	5	65%	14.2%
2018	16	1.4	12.6	2.0	0	45%	7.1%

9 seasons of usage, 2018–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Mike Gesicki sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the CIN room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Cincinnati Bengals roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Is any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4