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If Quentin Johnston is out, who gets his targets?

The Los Angeles Chargers room absorbs +2.19 receptions, and Ladd McConkey takes the largest single share at +0.57. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the wide receiver room.

Where the work goes

Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.

Receptions gained if Quentin Johnston sitsLadd McConkey+0.6WR 61% snapsTre Harris+0.5WR 72% snapsOronde Gadsden…+0.1TE 40% snapsDavid Njoku+0.1TE 36% snapsCharlie Kolar+0.1TE 58% snapsHayden Rucci+0.1TE 41% snapsPatrick Herbert+0.1TE 1% snapsOmarion Hampton+0.1RB 54% snapsKeaton Mitchell+0.1RB 31% snapsKimani Vidal+0.1RB 14% snapschange in projected receptions

Every player in the room

PlayerCatches nowIf he sitsChange
Ladd McConkey WR · 61% snaps3.804.37+0.57
Quentin Johnston WR · 82% snaps3.30—OUT
Tre Harris WR · 72% snaps2.803.29+0.49
Oronde Gadsden II TE · 40% snaps2.202.35+0.15
David Njoku TE · 36% snaps2.002.15+0.15
Omarion Hampton RB · 54% snaps1.902.03+0.13
Charlie Kolar TE · 58% snaps1.401.55+0.15
Keaton Mitchell RB · 31% snaps1.101.23+0.13
Hayden Rucci TE · 41% snaps0.700.85+0.15
Kimani Vidal RB · 14% snaps0.600.72+0.12
Patrick Herbert TE · 1% snaps0.500.65+0.15

What the data says happens

Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.

RoomReceptions gainednt
Receivers+0.5841,53711.16
Tight ends+0.1751,0803.33
Backs+0.1131,0112.00

The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.

Quentin Johnston’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection

Cascade effects 2018–2026, paired within player, net of control · projections as-of-week with no lookahead · 2026 week 4