Quentin Johnston

Los Angeles Chargers · Wide receiverWR1

Over 15 games last season Quentin Johnston averaged 3.6 receptions and 50 yards on 77% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 3.4 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

3.4

0.2 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

15%

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 6 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	3.4 projected
26 wk3	BUF	87%	18.2%	6	3	40	0	0	0	3.1 -0.1
26 wk2	LV	81%	19.2%	5	1	7	1	7	0	—
26 wk1	ARI	78%	22.2%	6	2	17	0	0	0	—
25 wk19	NE	77%	20.0%	6	3	20	0	0	0	—
25 wk17	HOU	75%	25.8%	8	5	98	0	0	0	—
25 wk16	DAL	58%	17.9%	5	4	104	0	0	1	—
25 wk14	PHI	76%	13.0%	3	2	8	0	0	0	—
25 wk13	LV	67%	14.3%	3	3	23	0	0	1	—
25 wk11	JAX	90%	12.5%	3	0	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk10	PIT	82%	30.3%	10	5	42	0	0	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 17 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	11 of 17	65%
5+ receptions	5 of 17	29%
7+ receptions	1 of 17	6%
50+ receiving yards	7 of 17	41%
75+ receiving yards	5 of 17	29%
100+ receiving yards	1 of 17	6%
Scored a touchdown	7 of 17	41%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	2.0	21.3	5.7	0	82%	19.9%
2025	15	3.6	50.3	6.0	8	77%	18.6%
2024	16	3.4	44.4	6.0	8	72%	20.6%
2023	17	2.2	25.4	3.9	2	65%	11.1%

4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Quentin Johnston sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the LAC room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Los Angeles Chargers roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4