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Los Angeles Chargers
This is a committee. Quentin Johnston holds 19.9% of the targets, and the 14 tracked pass-catchers project for 22 receptions and 217 receiving yards in week 4.
Who owns the targets
Trailing target share, largest first. Target share reproduces at 0.92 between halves of a season, so this is a stable picture of the pecking order rather than a snapshot of one good game.
Receivers
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quentin Johnston WR1 | 82% | 19.9% | 3.4 | 43 | who benefits |
| Tre Harris WR2 | 72% | 18.3% | 2.9 | 35 | who benefits |
| Ladd McConkey WR3 | 61% | 17.5% | 3.9 | 37 | — |
| Brenen Thompson WR depth | 18% | 5.8% | 0.4 | 13 | — |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR depth | 4% | 3.0% | 0.6 | 10 | — |
| Derius Davis WR depth | 10% | 2.5% | 0.3 | 11 | — |
Tight ends
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Njoku TE1 | 36% | 15.0% | 0.0 | — | who benefits |
| Oronde Gadsden II TE2 | 40% | 8.1% | 2.9 | 27 | who benefits |
| Charlie Kolar TE3 | 58% | 5.8% | 1.9 | 14 | — |
| Hayden Rucci TE depth | 41% | 0.0% | 1.3 | 5 | — |
| Patrick Herbert TE depth | 1% | 0.0% | 1.2 | 1 | — |
Backs
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keaton Mitchell RB2 | 31% | 4.3% | 1.1 | 6 | who benefits |
| Omarion Hampton RB1 | 54% | 3.6% | 1.9 | 9 | who benefits |
| Kimani Vidal RB3 | 14% | 3.0% | 0.6 | 7 | — |
The ground game
Projected for 21 carries and 95 rushing yards, with Omarion Hampton taking 70% of the work. Carries per game is the second most repeatable thing a player has — 0.97 between halves of a season — so a backfield split holds up far better than a touchdown rate does.
| Player | Carries | Rush yds | Yds/carry | Anytime TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omarion Hampton RB | 15.0 | 65 | 4.35 | 36% |
| Keaton Mitchell RB | 6.4 | 30 | 4.65 | 21% |
Whose role has changed since last season
Snap share this season against last, for anyone who has moved at least six points. This is the input the model leans on hardest early in a year, because snap share is already reliable at 0.84 after two games while receptions manage 0.66.