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Ladd McConkey

Los Angeles Chargers · Wide receiverWR3

Over 17 games last season Ladd McConkey averaged 4.1 receptions and 48 yards on 78% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 3.9 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
3.9
0.2 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
37
Anytime TD
17%

What a realistic week looks like

4%011%116%218%316%413%59%66%73%82%910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 7 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk4———————3.9 projected
26 wk3BUF88%15.2%546604.0 +0.0
26 wk2LV46%11.5%33350—
26 wk1ARI49%25.9%75821—
25 wk19NE88%13.3%43320—
25 wk17HOU89%6.5%21310—
25 wk16DAL75%21.4%64431—
25 wk15KC74%11.5%32200—
25 wk14PHI86%21.7%51120—
25 wk13LV76%28.6%64391—
25 wk11JAX62%16.7%43130—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions15 of 1979%
5+ receptions7 of 1937%
7+ receptions2 of 1911%
50+ receiving yards7 of 1937%
75+ receiving yards4 of 1921%
100+ receiving yards2 of 1911%
Scored a touchdown7 of 1937%

Career by season

Ladd McConkey: snap share and target share by season020406080100202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far34.061.05.0161%17.5%
2025174.148.36.5678%20.6%
2024175.479.27.4874%25.7%

3 seasons of usage, 2024–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Los Angeles Chargers roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4