Keaton Mitchell

Los Angeles Chargers · Running backRB2

Over 13 games last season Keaton Mitchell averaged 0.7 receptions and 5 yards on 17% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.1 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

1.1

0.4 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Rush attempts

6.4

Rushing yards

Anytime TD

21%

His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 3 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.1 projected
26 wk3	BUF	38%	9.1%	3	3	-5	8	52	1	0.8 +2.2
26 wk2	LV	25%	3.8%	1	1	15	5	24	0	—
26 wk1	ARI	31%	0.0%	0	0	0	4	9	0	—
25 wk18	PIT	14%	0.0%	0	0	0	2	2	0	—
25 wk17	GB	18%	10.0%	2	2	7	9	31	0	—
25 wk16	NE	35%	0.0%	0	0	0	9	13	0	—
25 wk15	CIN	39%	8.3%	1	0	0	8	66	0	—
25 wk14	PIT	15%	0.0%	0	0	0	6	76	0	—
25 wk13	CIN	13%	10.0%	3	2	12	2	19	1	—
25 wk12	NYJ	19%	5.0%	1	1	9	2	10	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 15 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	0 of 15	0%
5+ receptions	0 of 15	0%
7+ receptions	0 of 15	0%
50+ receiving yards	0 of 15	0%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 15	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 15	0%
Scored a touchdown	1 of 15	7%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	Carries/gm	Rush yds/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	1.3	3.3	1.3	5.7	28.3	1	31%	4.3%
2025	13	0.7	4.8	0.9	4.5	26.2	1	17%	4.2%
2024	5	0.2	5.6	0.2	3.0	6.0	0	14%	1.2%
2023	7	1.3	13.3	1.6	6.7	56.6	2	28%	5.7%

4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Keaton Mitchell sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the LAC room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Los Angeles Chargers roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Do touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4