Over 16 games last season Oronde Gadsden II averaged 3.2 receptions and 43 yards on 62% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 2.9 receptions.
Week 4 projection
Receptions
2.9
0.4 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
27
Anytime TD
20%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 6 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
How his role is trending
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk4
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
2.9 projected
26 wk3
BUF
57%
9.1%
3
0
0
0
2.0 -2.0
26 wk2
LV
44%
7.7%
2
2
18
1
—
26 wk1
ARI
18%
7.4%
2
2
32
0
—
25 wk19
NE
45%
10.0%
3
3
30
0
—
25 wk18
DEN
46%
5.3%
2
2
23
0
—
25 wk17
HOU
73%
19.4%
6
3
32
1
—
25 wk16
DAL
59%
3.6%
1
1
7
0
—
25 wk15
KC
52%
19.2%
5
4
61
0
—
25 wk14
PHI
62%
17.4%
4
1
7
0
—
25 wk13
LV
70%
9.5%
2
1
27
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 18 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
9 of 18
50%
5+ receptions
5 of 18
28%
7+ receptions
2 of 18
11%
50+ receiving yards
5 of 18
28%
75+ receiving yards
2 of 18
11%
100+ receiving yards
1 of 18
6%
Scored a touchdown
4 of 18
22%
Career by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Season
Games
Catches/gm
Rec yds/gm
Targets/gm
TDs, season
Snap share
Target share
2026 so far
3
1.3
16.7
2.3
1
40%
8.1%
2025
16
3.2
43.4
4.5
3
62%
14.1%
2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016