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KV

Kimani Vidal

Los Angeles Chargers · Running backRB3

Over 14 games last season Kimani Vidal averaged 1.3 receptions and 11 yards on 57% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.6 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
0.6
0.7 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
7
Anytime TD
5%
His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

62%025%19%2345678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 2 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————0.6 projected
26 wk3BUF25%9.1%31141600.6 +0.4
26 wk2LV10%0.0%000000—
26 wk1ARI7%0.0%000000—
25 wk19NE93%10.0%322011310—
25 wk18DEN20%2.6%11-23120—
25 wk16DAL33%0.0%0005110—
25 wk15KC64%3.8%111512330—
25 wk14PHI69%13.0%316014440—
25 wk13LV76%4.8%1111251261—
25 wk11JAX52%8.3%22-15130—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 16 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions2 of 1612%
5+ receptions0 of 160%
7+ receptions0 of 160%
50+ receiving yards1 of 166%
75+ receiving yards0 of 160%
100+ receiving yards0 of 160%
Scored a touchdown4 of 1625%

Career by season

Kimani Vidal: snap share and target share by season020406080100202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmCarries/gmRush yds/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far30.34.71.00.32.0014%3.0%
2025141.311.11.811.948.1457%5.7%
2024100.56.20.94.315.5128%2.7%

3 seasons of usage, 2024–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Los Angeles Chargers roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchDo touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4