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Charlie Kolar

Los Angeles Chargers · Tight endTE3

Over 17 games last season Charlie Kolar averaged 0.6 receptions and 8 yards on 40% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.9 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
1.9
1.3 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
14
Anytime TD
8%
Returning from a missed week. Players in their first game back come in about a third of a reception below recent form, so this projection is held down rather than reading his last line straight across.
His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

22%028%122%214%38%44%5678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 4 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk4———————1.9 projected
26 wk2LV62%11.5%33210—
26 wk1ARI55%0.0%0000—
25 wk18PIT25%0.0%0000—
25 wk17GB49%5.0%1000—
25 wk16NE49%5.0%11180—
25 wk15CIN51%0.0%0000—
25 wk14PIT24%3.0%11190—
25 wk13CIN17%3.3%11170—
25 wk12NYJ32%0.0%0000—
25 wk11CLE31%4.0%1000—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions1 of 195%
5+ receptions0 of 190%
7+ receptions0 of 190%
50+ receiving yards0 of 190%
75+ receiving yards0 of 190%
100+ receiving yards0 of 190%
Scored a touchdown2 of 1911%

Career by season

Charlie Kolar: snap share and target share by season02040608010020222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far21.510.51.5058%5.8%
2025170.68.40.9240%3.5%
2024150.68.70.7129%2.5%
2023160.55.70.6126%2.6%
202222.024.53.0024%7.1%

5 seasons of usage, 2022–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Los Angeles Chargers roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchIs any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4