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Derius Davis

Los Angeles Chargers · Wide receiverWR depth

Over 12 games last season Derius Davis averaged 0.2 receptions and 1 yards on 12% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.3 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
0.3
0.2 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
11
Anytime TD
0%
His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

76%017%12345678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 1 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk4———————0.3 projected
26 wk3BUF1%0.0%00000.5 -0.5
26 wk2LV12%3.8%1000—
26 wk1ARI18%3.7%1000—
25 wk19NE7%0.0%0000—
25 wk18DEN66%2.6%1170—
25 wk14PHI—0.0%0000—
25 wk13LV1%0.0%0000—
25 wk11JAX10%4.2%1000—
25 wk10PIT7%3.0%1130—
25 wk9TEN2%0.0%0000—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 14 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions0 of 140%
5+ receptions0 of 140%
7+ receptions0 of 140%
50+ receiving yards0 of 140%
75+ receiving yards0 of 140%
100+ receiving yards0 of 140%
Scored a touchdown0 of 140%

Career by season

Derius Davis: snap share and target share by season0204060801002023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far30.00.00.7010%2.5%
2025120.20.80.2012%0.8%
2024160.97.21.1217%3.7%
2023170.93.91.0014%3.0%

4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Los Angeles Chargers roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4