Tre Harris

Los Angeles Chargers · Wide receiverWR2

Over 18 games last season Tre Harris averaged 1.8 receptions and 19 yards on 49% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 2.9 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

2.9

1.1 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

14%

red-zone role (+0.08)

His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 6 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.9 projected
26 wk3	BUF	58%	21.2%	7	6	76	0	0	0	2.7 +3.3
26 wk2	LV	82%	11.5%	3	1	53	0	0	0	—
26 wk1	ARI	75%	22.2%	6	3	20	0	0	0	—
25 wk19	NE	57%	10.0%	3	2	20	0	0	0	—
25 wk18	DEN	97%	15.8%	6	2	28	0	0	0	—
25 wk17	HOU	46%	3.2%	1	1	8	1	7	0	—
25 wk16	DAL	45%	17.9%	5	4	54	0	0	0	—
25 wk15	KC	85%	19.2%	5	3	49	0	0	0	—
25 wk14	PHI	50%	8.7%	2	1	18	1	3	0	—
25 wk13	LV	51%	19.0%	4	3	30	0	0	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 20 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	5 of 20	25%
5+ receptions	0 of 20	0%
7+ receptions	0 of 20	0%
50+ receiving yards	2 of 20	10%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 20	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 20	0%
Scored a touchdown	1 of 20	5%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	3.3	49.7	5.3	0	72%	18.3%
2025	18	1.8	19.1	2.6	1	49%	8.6%

2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Tre Harris sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the LAC room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Los Angeles Chargers roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4