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If TreVeyon Henderson is out, who gets his targets?
The New England Patriots room absorbs +1.71 receptions, and Rhamondre Stevenson takes the largest single share at +0.57. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the running back room.
Where the work goes
Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.
Every player in the room
| Player | Catches now | If he sits | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mack Hollins WR · 72% snaps | 3.60 | 3.60 | +0.00 |
| A.J. Brown WR · 44% snaps | 3.60 | 3.60 | +0.00 |
| Hunter Henry TE · 79% snaps | 3.20 | 3.24 | +0.04 |
| Romeo Doubs WR · 65% snaps | 2.90 | 2.90 | +0.00 |
| DeMario Douglas WR · 56% snaps | 2.40 | 2.40 | +0.00 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson RB · 58% snaps | 2.10 | 2.67 | +0.57 |
| Lan Larison RB · 4% snaps | 1.60 | 2.07 | +0.47 |
| TreVeyon Henderson RB · 48% snaps | 1.30 | — | OUT |
| Kyle Williams WR · 24% snaps | 0.80 | 0.80 | +0.00 |
| Eli Raridon TE · 37% snaps | 0.80 | 0.83 | +0.03 |
| Efton Chism III WR · 22% snaps | 0.70 | 0.70 | +0.00 |
| Tanner Arkin TE · 24% snaps | 0.60 | 0.63 | +0.03 |
| Corey Kiner RB · 10% snaps | 0.50 | 1.07 | +0.57 |
What the data says happens
Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.
| Room | Receptions gained | n | t |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receivers | +0.112 | 2,094 | 2.36 |
| Tight ends | +0.103 | 1,258 | 2.16 |
| Backs | +0.610 | 1,042 | 11.17 |
The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.
TreVeyon Henderson’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection