TreVeyon Henderson

New England Patriots · Running backRB1

Over 21 games last season TreVeyon Henderson averaged 1.9 receptions and 12 yards on 43% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.3 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

1.3

0.6 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Rush attempts

11.0

Rushing yards

Anytime TD

16%

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 3 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.3 projected
26 wk3	JAX	37%	3.3%	1	1	6	8	23	0	1.7 -0.7
26 wk2	PIT	60%	0.0%	0	0	0	16	76	1	—
25 wk22	SEA	39%	7.3%	3	3	26	6	19	0	—
25 wk21	DEN	6%	0.0%	0	0	0	3	5	0	—
25 wk20	HOU	38%	7.7%	2	1	-2	12	25	0	—
25 wk19	LAC	41%	3.7%	1	1	9	9	27	0	—
25 wk18	MIA	41%	0.0%	0	0	0	13	53	2	—
25 wk17	NYJ	52%	0.0%	0	0	0	19	82	0	—
25 wk16	BAL	19%	2.4%	1	1	9	5	3	0	—
25 wk15	BUF	48%	13.6%	3	2	13	14	148	2	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 22 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	7 of 22	32%
5+ receptions	2 of 22	9%
7+ receptions	0 of 22	0%
50+ receiving yards	0 of 22	0%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 22	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 22	0%
Scored a touchdown	6 of 22	27%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	Carries/gm	Rush yds/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	2	0.5	3.0	0.5	12.0	49.5	1	48%	1.7%
2025	21	1.9	12.1	2.3	10.0	47.0	10	43%	7.7%

2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If TreVeyon Henderson sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the NE room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole New England Patriots roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Do touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4