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New England Patriots
This is a committee. Mack Hollins holds 18.6% of the targets, and the 15 tracked pass-catchers project for 21 receptions and 230 receiving yards in week 4.
Who owns the targets
Trailing target share, largest first. Target share reproduces at 0.92 between halves of a season, so this is a stable picture of the pecking order rather than a snapshot of one good game.
Receivers
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mack Hollins WR1 | 72% | 18.6% | 3.6 | 39 | who benefits |
| DeMario Douglas WR2 | 56% | 16.3% | 2.4 | 31 | who benefits |
| Romeo Doubs WR3 | 65% | 14.0% | 2.9 | 39 | — |
| A.J. Brown WR depth | 44% | 12.9% | 0.0 | — | — |
| Kyle Williams WR depth | 24% | 6.5% | 0.8 | 15 | — |
| Efton Chism III WR depth | 22% | 5.7% | 0.7 | 10 | — |
Tight ends
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry TE1 | 79% | 13.4% | 3.2 | 38 | who benefits |
| Eli Raridon TE2 | 37% | 4.0% | 0.7 | 14 | — |
| Cameron Latu TE depth | 20% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 0 | — |
| Tanner Arkin TE3 | 24% | 0.0% | 0.5 | 2 | — |
Backs
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson RB2 | 58% | 13.0% | 2.2 | 22 | who benefits |
| Lan Larison RB depth | 4% | 6.5% | 1.6 | 8 | — |
| Reggie Gilliam RB depth | 22% | 3.2% | 0.3 | 3 | — |
| TreVeyon Henderson RB1 | 48% | 1.7% | 1.3 | 8 | who benefits |
| Corey Kiner RB3 | 10% | 1.1% | 0.6 | 1 | — |
The ground game
Projected for 27 carries and 115 rushing yards, with TreVeyon Henderson taking 41% of the work. Carries per game is the second most repeatable thing a player has — 0.97 between halves of a season — so a backfield split holds up far better than a touchdown rate does.
| Player | Carries | Rush yds | Yds/carry | Anytime TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TreVeyon Henderson RB | 11.0 | 49 | 4.48 | 16% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson RB | 10.7 | 44 | 4.09 | 24% |
| Corey Kiner RB | 5.4 | 22 | 4.05 | 10% |
Whose role has changed since last season
Snap share this season against last, for anyone who has moved at least six points. This is the input the model leans on hardest early in a year, because snap share is already reliable at 0.84 after two games while receptions manage 0.66.