Slate Stats › NFL › Teams

New England Patriots

This is a committee. Mack Hollins holds 18.6% of the targets, and the 15 tracked pass-catchers project for 21 receptions and 230 receiving yards in week 4.

Who owns the targets

Trailing target share, largest first. Target share reproduces at 0.92 between halves of a season, so this is a stable picture of the pecking order rather than a snapshot of one good game.

19%16%14%13%13%42%Mack HollinsDeMario DouglasRomeo DoubsHunter HenryRhamondre StevensonEveryone else

Receivers

PlayerSnap shareTarget shareProj. catchesProj. rec yardsIf he sits
Mack Hollins WR172%18.6%3.639who benefits
DeMario Douglas WR256%16.3%2.431who benefits
Romeo Doubs WR365%14.0%2.939—
A.J. Brown WR depth44%12.9%0.0——
Kyle Williams WR depth24%6.5%0.815—
Efton Chism III WR depth22%5.7%0.710—

Tight ends

PlayerSnap shareTarget shareProj. catchesProj. rec yardsIf he sits
Hunter Henry TE179%13.4%3.238who benefits
Eli Raridon TE237%4.0%0.714—
Cameron Latu TE depth20%0.0%0.30—
Tanner Arkin TE324%0.0%0.52—

Backs

PlayerSnap shareTarget shareProj. catchesProj. rec yardsIf he sits
Rhamondre Stevenson RB258%13.0%2.222who benefits
Lan Larison RB depth4%6.5%1.68—
Reggie Gilliam RB depth22%3.2%0.33—
TreVeyon Henderson RB148%1.7%1.38who benefits
Corey Kiner RB310%1.1%0.61—

The ground game

Projected for 27 carries and 115 rushing yards, with TreVeyon Henderson taking 41% of the work. Carries per game is the second most repeatable thing a player has — 0.97 between halves of a season — so a backfield split holds up far better than a touchdown rate does.

PlayerCarriesRush ydsYds/carryAnytime TD
TreVeyon Henderson RB11.0494.4816%
Rhamondre Stevenson RB10.7444.0924%
Corey Kiner RB5.4224.0510%
11115TreVeyon HendersonRhamondre StevensonCorey Kiner

Whose role has changed since last season

Snap share this season against last, for anyone who has moved at least six points. This is the input the model leans on hardest early in a year, because snap share is already reliable at 0.84 after two games while receptions manage 0.66.

New England Patriots snap share changeDeMario Douglas+29.427→56%Cameron Latu+9.110→20%Kyle Williams-6.430→24%Romeo Doubs-12.077→65%A.J. Brown-47.291→44%points of snap share

Ranked by trailing target share, tie-broken on snap share · concentration measured as a Herfindahl index over the tracked room · projections as-of-week with no lookahead