Kyle Williams

New England Patriots · Wide receiverWR depth

Over 21 games last season Kyle Williams averaged 0.6 receptions and 11 yards on 30% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.8 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

0.8

0.2 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 2 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.8 projected
26 wk3	JAX	35%	10.0%	3	1	34	0	0	0	0.6 +0.4
26 wk2	PIT	20%	9.5%	2	1	10	0	0	0	—
26 wk1	SEA	17%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk22	SEA	24%	4.9%	2	1	7	0	0	0	—
25 wk21	DEN	23%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk20	HOU	34%	11.5%	3	0	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk19	LAC	33%	3.7%	1	1	7	0	0	0	—
25 wk18	MIA	46%	0.0%	0	0	0	1	5	0	—
25 wk17	NYJ	85%	20.0%	5	3	20	0	0	0	—
25 wk16	BAL	38%	7.1%	3	2	46	0	0	1	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 23 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	1 of 23	4%
5+ receptions	0 of 23	0%
7+ receptions	0 of 23	0%
50+ receiving yards	1 of 23	4%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 23	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 23	0%
Scored a touchdown	3 of 23	13%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	0.7	14.7	1.7	0	24%	6.5%
2025	21	0.6	10.6	1.3	3	30%	4.3%

2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole New England Patriots roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4