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RG

Reggie Gilliam

New England Patriots · Running backRB depth

Over 19 games last season Reggie Gilliam averaged 0.1 receptions and 1 yards on 21% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.3 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
0.3
0.2 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
3
Anytime TD
10%

What a realistic week looks like

79%015%12345678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 1 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————0.3 projected
26 wk3JAX13%0.0%0000000.5 -0.5
26 wk2PIT36%9.5%214000—
26 wk1SEA18%0.0%000000—
25 wk20DEN19%0.0%000000—
25 wk19JAX14%0.0%000000—
25 wk18NYJ20%3.6%1122240—
25 wk17PHI9%0.0%000000—
25 wk16CLE22%0.0%000000—
25 wk15NE11%0.0%000000—
25 wk14CIN23%0.0%000000—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 21 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions0 of 210%
5+ receptions0 of 210%
7+ receptions0 of 210%
50+ receiving yards0 of 210%
75+ receiving yards0 of 210%
100+ receiving yards0 of 210%
Scored a touchdown0 of 210%

Career by season

Reggie Gilliam: snap share and target share by season0204060801002020202120222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far30.31.30.7022%3.2%
2025190.11.30.1021%0.4%
2024170.00.00.0016%0.0%
2023180.10.20.109%0.2%
2022170.54.10.6116%1.5%
2021170.42.10.5017%1.3%
2020170.10.90.118%0.3%

7 seasons of usage, 2020–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole New England Patriots roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchDo touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4