Over 10 games last season Efton Chism III averaged 0.4 receptions and 10 yards on 20% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.7 receptions.
Week 4 projection
Receptions
0.7
0.3 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
10
Anytime TD
20%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 2 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
How his role is trending
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk4
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
0.7 projected
26 wk3
JAX
25%
6.7%
2
1
1
0
0.7 +0.3
26 wk2
PIT
18%
4.8%
1
1
-2
0
—
25 wk20
HOU
34%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk19
LAC
22%
3.7%
1
1
20
0
—
25 wk18
MIA
44%
5.0%
1
1
35
0
—
25 wk17
NYJ
62%
8.0%
2
2
40
1
—
25 wk13
NYG
3%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk11
NYJ
7%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk10
TB
3%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk9
ATL
6%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 11 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
0 of 11
0%
5+ receptions
0 of 11
0%
7+ receptions
0 of 11
0%
50+ receiving yards
0 of 11
0%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 11
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 11
0%
Scored a touchdown
1 of 11
9%
Career by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Season
Games
Catches/gm
Rec yds/gm
Targets/gm
TDs, season
Snap share
Target share
2026 so far
2
1.0
-0.5
1.5
0
22%
5.7%
2025
10
0.4
9.5
0.4
1
20%
1.7%
2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016