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DeMario Douglas

New England Patriots · Wide receiverWR2

Over 21 games last season DeMario Douglas averaged 1.9 receptions and 25 yards on 27% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 2.4 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
2.4
0.6 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
31
Anytime TD
14%
His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

14%023%122%217%311%46%53%678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 5 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk4———————2.4 projected
26 wk3JAX59%16.7%513802.6 -1.6
26 wk2PIT47%9.5%2190—
26 wk1SEA62%22.6%75200—
25 wk22SEA41%17.1%75450—
25 wk21DEN19%5.0%1000—
25 wk20HOU26%7.7%22361—
25 wk19LAC33%7.4%2130—
25 wk18MIA25%15.0%32290—
25 wk17NYJ14%8.0%21100—
25 wk16BAL18%4.8%2160—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 23 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions7 of 2330%
5+ receptions2 of 239%
7+ receptions0 of 230%
50+ receiving yards2 of 239%
75+ receiving yards1 of 234%
100+ receiving yards1 of 234%
Scored a touchdown4 of 2317%

Career by season

DeMario Douglas: snap share and target share by season0204060801002023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far32.322.34.7056%16.3%
2025211.925.32.8427%9.2%
2024173.936.55.1363%17.4%
2023143.540.15.6057%17.9%

4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If DeMario Douglas sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the NE room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole New England Patriots roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4