Corey Kiner

New England Patriots · Running backRB3

Corey Kiner has no full prior season to anchor to, so this week’s projection leans on his 3 games of current-season usage alone — treat it as a thinner read than a veteran’s.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

0.6

0.1 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Rush attempts

5.4

Rushing yards

Anytime TD

10%

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 2 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.6 projected
26 wk3	JAX	13%	3.3%	1	1	9	6	18	0	0.3 +0.7
26 wk2	PIT	7%	0.0%	0	0	0	2	0	0	—
26 wk1	SEA	11%	0.0%	0	0	0	6	11	0	—
25 wk18	LA	25%	10.7%	3	2	15	3	13	0	—
25 wk17	CIN	4%	0.0%	0	0	0	1	2	0	—
25 wk16	ATL	16%	0.0%	0	0	0	6	32	0	—
25 wk15	HOU	8%	0.0%	0	0	0	2	11	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 6 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	0 of 6	0%
5+ receptions	0 of 6	0%
7+ receptions	0 of 6	0%
50+ receiving yards	0 of 6	0%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 6	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 6	0%
Scored a touchdown	0 of 6	0%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	Carries/gm	Rush yds/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	0.3	3.0	0.3	4.7	9.7	0	10%	1.1%
2025	4	0.5	3.8	0.8	3.0	14.5	0	13%	2.7%

2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole New England Patriots roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Do touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4