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A.J. Brown

New England Patriots · Wide receiverWR depth

A.J. Brown is on reserve / ir and cannot play. Roster status as of the week-3 roster, which persists until he is activated, so no week-4 projection is produced for him. His usage and history are below. See the rest of the New England Patriots room →

Over 16 games last season A.J. Brown averaged 5.1 receptions and 64 yards on 91% of snaps. His usage and history are below; there is no week 4 projection because he is not available to play.

Returning from a missed week. Players in their first game back come in about a third of a reception below recent form, so this projection is held down rather than reading his last line straight across.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk1SEA44%12.9%43260—
25 wk19SF100%20.6%73250—
25 wk17BUF89%31.8%75680—
25 wk16WAS87%41.4%129950—
25 wk15LV72%11.1%22411—
25 wk14LAC97%34.2%1361000—
25 wk13CHI96%40.0%12101322—
25 wk12DAL94%27.8%1081101—
25 wk11DET93%40.7%117490—
25 wk10GB78%13.0%32130—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 17 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions13 of 1776%
5+ receptions10 of 1759%
7+ receptions4 of 1724%
50+ receiving yards8 of 1747%
75+ receiving yards7 of 1741%
100+ receiving yards5 of 1729%
Scored a touchdown5 of 1729%

Career by season

A.J. Brown: snap share and target share by season02040608010020192020202120222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far13.026.04.0044%12.9%
2025165.164.28.0791%28.2%
2024174.673.17.1988%32.2%
2023176.285.69.3789%30.4%
2022205.082.18.31284%28.4%
2021144.972.28.1671%28.4%
2020155.177.27.71282%28.0%
2019193.058.74.9972%19.1%

8 seasons of usage, 2019–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole New England Patriots roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4