Hunter Henry

New England Patriots · Tight endTE1

Over 21 games last season Hunter Henry averaged 3.3 receptions and 42 yards on 79% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 3.2 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

3.2

0.1 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

12%

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 6 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	3.2 projected
26 wk3	JAX	70%	6.7%	2	1	5	0	3.7 -2.7
26 wk2	PIT	91%	23.8%	5	3	40	0	—
26 wk1	SEA	76%	9.7%	3	3	26	0	—
25 wk22	SEA	72%	12.2%	5	3	31	0	—
25 wk21	DEN	69%	15.0%	3	2	12	0	—
25 wk20	HOU	72%	7.7%	2	1	5	0	—
25 wk19	LAC	88%	18.5%	5	3	64	1	—
25 wk18	MIA	58%	25.0%	5	5	56	0	—
25 wk17	NYJ	65%	12.0%	3	3	49	1	—
25 wk16	BAL	81%	16.7%	7	6	35	1	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 23 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	15 of 23	65%
5+ receptions	4 of 23	17%
7+ receptions	2 of 23	9%
50+ receiving yards	7 of 23	30%
75+ receiving yards	2 of 23	9%
100+ receiving yards	1 of 23	4%
Scored a touchdown	7 of 23	30%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	2.3	23.7	3.3	0	79%	13.4%
2025	21	3.3	41.9	4.9	8	79%	16.6%
2024	16	4.1	42.1	6.1	2	81%	20.4%
2023	14	3.0	29.9	4.4	6	75%	13.6%
2022	17	2.4	29.9	3.5	2	76%	11.7%
2021	18	2.8	35.2	4.4	9	68%	13.7%
2020	14	4.3	43.8	6.6	4	87%	17.9%
2019	12	4.6	54.3	6.3	5	79%	18.5%
2018	1	0.0	0.0	1.0	0	20%	2.1%
2017	14	3.2	41.4	4.4	4	65%	12.4%
2016	15	2.4	31.9	3.5	8	59%	10.1%

11 seasons of usage, 2016–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Hunter Henry sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the NE room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole New England Patriots roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Is any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4