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Rhamondre Stevenson

New England Patriots · Running backRB2

Over 18 games last season Rhamondre Stevenson averaged 2.4 receptions and 26 yards on 62% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 2.2 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
2.2
0.2 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
22
Rush attempts
10.7
Rushing yards
44
Anytime TD
24%
His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

16%025%123%216%310%45%53%678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 5 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————2.2 projected
26 wk3JAX52%10.0%331672202.8 +0.2
26 wk2PIT36%9.5%2136430—
26 wk1SEA85%19.4%654418510—
25 wk22SEA63%12.2%55407231—
25 wk21DEN94%10.0%20025710—
25 wk20HOU62%15.4%441116700—
25 wk19LAC62%14.8%437510530—
25 wk18MIA47%10.0%222271313—
25 wk17NYJ48%20.0%55558472—
25 wk16BAL84%7.1%32278511—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 20 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions9 of 2045%
5+ receptions4 of 2020%
7+ receptions0 of 200%
50+ receiving yards3 of 2015%
75+ receiving yards2 of 2010%
100+ receiving yards0 of 200%
Scored a touchdown6 of 2030%

Career by season

Rhamondre Stevenson: snap share and target share by season020406080100202120222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmCarries/gmRush yds/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far33.021.03.710.338.7058%13.0%
2025182.426.22.910.445.61062%10.6%
2024152.211.22.713.853.4862%9.1%
2023123.219.84.213.051.6462%12.9%
2022174.124.85.212.461.2667%17.1%
2021131.412.01.710.848.7535%6.2%

6 seasons of usage, 2021–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Rhamondre Stevenson sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the NE room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole New England Patriots roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchDo touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4