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Mack Hollins

New England Patriots · Wide receiverWR1

Over 17 games last season Mack Hollins averaged 3.1 receptions and 40 yards on 68% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 3.6 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
3.6
0.5 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
39
Anytime TD
15%
red-zone role (+0.07)

What a realistic week looks like

5%013%118%218%316%412%58%65%73%8910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 7 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk4———————3.6 projected
26 wk3JAX76%30.0%968703.1 +2.9
26 wk2PIT71%9.5%22180—
26 wk1SEA70%16.1%54510—
25 wk22SEA72%19.5%84781—
25 wk21DEN61%10.0%22510—
25 wk16BAL66%21.4%97690—
25 wk15BUF79%36.4%84410—
25 wk13NYG75%13.3%43230—
25 wk12CIN86%18.2%62300—
25 wk11NYJ85%15.2%54640—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions9 of 1947%
5+ receptions3 of 1916%
7+ receptions2 of 1911%
50+ receiving yards7 of 1937%
75+ receiving yards3 of 1916%
100+ receiving yards1 of 195%
Scored a touchdown3 of 1916%

Career by season

Mack Hollins: snap share and target share by season020406080100201720192020202120222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far34.052.05.3072%18.6%
2025173.139.94.4368%15.1%
2024201.824.12.9666%10.0%
2023131.419.32.3040%7.5%
2022173.440.65.5493%16.8%
2021170.813.11.6428%4.6%
2020161.011.01.6126%4.3%
2019150.78.31.5038%4.1%
2017190.912.41.3125%3.7%

9 seasons of usage, 2017–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Mack Hollins sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the NE room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole New England Patriots roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4