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If Trey McBride is out, who gets his targets?
The Arizona Cardinals room absorbs +2.05 receptions, and Elijah Higgins takes the largest single share at +0.99. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the tight end room.
Where the work goes
Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.
Every player in the room
| Player | Catches now | If he sits | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBride TE · 86% snaps | 7.30 | — | OUT |
| Michael Wilson WR · 91% snaps | 5.20 | 5.27 | +0.07 |
| Jeremiyah Love RB · 49% snaps | 2.80 | 2.80 | +0.00 |
| Kendrick Bourne WR · 61% snaps | 2.70 | 2.77 | +0.07 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. WR · 77% snaps | 2.50 | 2.57 | +0.07 |
| Tyler Allgeier RB · 53% snaps | 1.90 | 1.90 | +0.00 |
| Elijah Higgins TE · 31% snaps | 0.90 | 1.89 | +0.99 |
| Hunter Long TE · 33% snaps | 0.60 | 1.45 | +0.85 |
| Bam Knight RB · 5% snaps | 0.60 | 0.60 | +0.00 |
What the data says happens
Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.
| Room | Receptions gained | n | t |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receivers | +0.107 | 2,160 | 2.29 |
| Tight ends | +0.492 | 1,024 | 9.57 |
| Backs | -0.045 | 1,259 | -0.92 |
The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.
Trey McBride’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection