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Trey McBride

Arizona Cardinals · Tight endTE1

Over 17 games last season Trey McBride averaged 7.4 receptions and 73 yards on 91% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 7.3 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
7.3
0.1 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
75
Anytime TD
47%
red-zone role (+0.07)

What a realistic week looks like

013%26%39%412%513%613%712%810%98%106%114%123%13Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 3 and 11 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk4———————7.3 projected
26 wk3SF91%22.0%1197507.0 +2.0
26 wk2SEA88%38.5%108411—
26 wk1LAC80%35.1%139951—
25 wk18LA95%28.6%87650—
25 wk17CIN96%37.1%1310761—
25 wk16ATL96%27.6%84270—
25 wk15HOU92%34.2%13121342—
25 wk14LA97%20.5%95580—
25 wk13TB89%24.3%98821—
25 wk12JAX88%21.7%109790—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions19 of 19100%
5+ receptions18 of 1995%
7+ receptions12 of 1963%
50+ receiving yards15 of 1979%
75+ receiving yards8 of 1942%
100+ receiving yards3 of 1916%
Scored a touchdown11 of 1958%

Career by season

Trey McBride: snap share and target share by season02040608010020222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far38.770.311.3286%31.9%
2025177.472.99.91191%27.9%
2024166.971.69.2390%28.6%
2023174.848.56.2369%19.8%
2022161.816.62.4154%6.8%

5 seasons of usage, 2022–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Trey McBride sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the ARI room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole Arizona Cardinals roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchIs any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4