Ameer Abdullah

Jacksonville Jaguars · Running backRB3

Over 13 games last season Ameer Abdullah averaged 1.2 receptions and 8 yards on 11% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.9 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

0.9

0.3 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Rush attempts

3.6

Rushing yards

Anytime TD

15%

red-zone role (+0.14)

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 2 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.9 projected
26 wk3	NE	11%	3.7%	1	0	0	3	2	0	0.9 -0.9
26 wk2	DEN	10%	3.6%	1	1	2	3	11	0	—
26 wk1	CLE	9%	4.8%	1	1	0	4	32	0	—
25 wk18	HOU	12%	6.1%	2	2	24	1	1	0	—
25 wk17	JAX	9%	3.4%	1	1	4	0	0	0	—
25 wk16	SF	7%	2.8%	1	1	4	0	0	0	—
25 wk15	SEA	23%	19.2%	5	5	32	4	15	0	—
25 wk14	JAX	24%	5.6%	2	2	5	1	4	0	—
25 wk13	HOU	2%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk12	KC	8%	3.2%	1	0	0	0	0	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 15 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	1 of 15	7%
5+ receptions	1 of 15	7%
7+ receptions	0 of 15	0%
50+ receiving yards	0 of 15	0%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 15	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 15	0%
Scored a touchdown	1 of 15	7%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	Carries/gm	Rush yds/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	0.7	0.7	1.0	3.3	15.0	0	10%	4.0%
2025	13	1.2	7.6	1.3	1.1	4.6	1	11%	4.3%
2024	16	2.5	16.3	2.9	4.1	19.4	5	42%	8.1%
2023	17	1.1	7.7	1.4	0.9	5.2	0	21%	4.8%
2022	17	1.5	12.4	1.9	0.2	1.2	1	18%	5.7%
2021	17	2.2	17.0	3.1	3.0	9.8	1	31%	9.4%
2020	14	0.6	4.1	0.6	0.6	3.0	2	9%	1.9%
2019	18	0.9	5.3	1.2	1.3	6.9	1	14%	4.5%
2018	9	0.3	3.1	0.4	0.1	0.1	0	4%	1.3%
2017	14	1.8	11.6	2.5	11.8	39.4	5	41%	7.1%
2016	2	2.5	28.5	2.5	9.0	50.5	1	42%	6.8%

11 seasons of usage, 2016–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Jacksonville Jaguars roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Do touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4