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Arian Smith

New York Jets · Wide receiverWR depth

Arian Smith is on reserve / ir and cannot play. Roster status as of the week-3 roster, which persists until he is activated, so no week-4 projection is produced for him. His usage and history are below. See the rest of the New York Jets room →

Over 16 games last season Arian Smith averaged 0.4 receptions and 3 yards on 38% of snaps. His usage and history are below; there is no week 4 projection because he is not available to play.

Returning from a missed week. Players in their first game back come in about a third of a reception below recent form, so this projection is held down rather than reading his last line straight across.
His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk2GB1%0.0%000000—
26 wk1TEN3%4.3%100000—
25 wk18BUF33%9.1%200120—
25 wk17NE16%3.1%115000—
25 wk16NO11%2.9%100000—
25 wk15JAX13%6.2%200000—
25 wk14MIA2%0.0%000000—
25 wk12BAL24%0.0%000180—
25 wk11NE16%0.0%000000—
25 wk10CLE67%0.0%0001130—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 18 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions0 of 180%
5+ receptions0 of 180%
7+ receptions0 of 180%
50+ receiving yards0 of 180%
75+ receiving yards0 of 180%
100+ receiving yards0 of 180%
Scored a touchdown0 of 180%

Career by season

Arian Smith: snap share and target share by season02040608010020252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far20.00.00.502%2.2%
2025160.43.21.0038%3.6%

2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole New York Jets roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4