Bhayshul Tuten

Jacksonville Jaguars · Running backRB1

Over 16 games last season Bhayshul Tuten averaged 0.6 receptions and 5 yards on 22% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.5 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

1.5

0.8 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Rush attempts

12.2

Rushing yards

Anytime TD

37%

His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 3 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.5 projected
26 wk3	NE	48%	7.4%	2	2	17	15	73	1	1.4 +0.6
26 wk2	DEN	51%	7.1%	2	2	-3	13	65	1	—
26 wk1	CLE	49%	4.8%	1	1	22	15	66	0	—
25 wk19	BUF	29%	0.0%	0	0	0	4	51	0	—
25 wk18	TEN	26%	0.0%	0	0	0	5	23	1	—
25 wk15	NYJ	18%	3.6%	1	1	16	1	7	1	—
25 wk14	IND	3%	0.0%	0	0	0	2	5	0	—
25 wk13	TEN	29%	4.0%	1	1	2	8	17	1	—
25 wk12	ARI	21%	3.3%	1	0	0	7	17	0	—
25 wk11	LAC	32%	0.0%	0	0	0	15	74	1	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 18 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	0 of 18	0%
5+ receptions	0 of 18	0%
7+ receptions	0 of 18	0%
50+ receiving yards	0 of 18	0%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 18	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 18	0%
Scored a touchdown	8 of 18	44%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	Carries/gm	Rush yds/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	1.7	12.0	1.7	14.3	68.0	2	49%	6.4%
2025	16	0.6	4.9	0.9	5.4	22.4	7	22%	2.8%

2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Bhayshul Tuten sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the JAX room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Jacksonville Jaguars roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Do touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4