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Brady Russell

Seattle Seahawks · Running backRB depth

Over 19 games last season Brady Russell averaged 0.0 receptions and 0 yards on 8% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.8 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
0.8
Receiving yards
10
Anytime TD
11%
His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

53%028%112%2345678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 2 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk4———————0.8 projected
26 wk3WAS18%2.2%112000.8 +0.2
26 wk2ARI44%0.0%0000—
26 wk1NE34%8.3%22200—
25 wk22NE—0.0%0000—
25 wk21LA1%0.0%0000—
25 wk20SF13%0.0%0000—
25 wk18SF6%0.0%0000—
25 wk16LA—0.0%0000—
25 wk15IND8%3.0%1000—
25 wk14ATL2%0.0%0000—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 21 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions0 of 210%
5+ receptions0 of 210%
7+ receptions0 of 210%
50+ receiving yards0 of 210%
75+ receiving yards0 of 210%
100+ receiving yards0 of 210%
Scored a touchdown0 of 210%

Career by season

Brady Russell: snap share and target share by season0204060801002023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far31.013.31.0032%3.5%
2025190.00.00.108%0.2%
2024110.00.00.005%0.0%
2023100.00.00.004%0.0%

4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Seattle Seahawks roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchDo touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4