Braelon Allen

New York Jets · Running backRB2

Braelon Allen has no full prior season to anchor to, so this week’s projection leans on his 3 games of current-season usage alone — treat it as a thinner read than a veteran’s.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

1.6

1.1 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Rush attempts

6.6

Rushing yards

Anytime TD

20%

red-zone AND third-down role (+0.17)

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 4 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.6 projected
26 wk3	DET	52%	8.3%	3	3	3	4	14	0	0.8 +2.2
26 wk2	GB	31%	2.8%	1	1	8	5	7	1	—
26 wk1	TEN	40%	4.3%	1	0	0	10	40	0	—
25 wk4	MIA	10%	0.0%	0	0	0	4	26	0	—
25 wk3	TB	33%	5.7%	2	2	17	6	30	0	—
25 wk2	BUF	19%	4.8%	1	0	0	2	11	0	—
25 wk1	PIT	31%	0.0%	0	0	0	6	9	1	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 6 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	0 of 6	0%
5+ receptions	0 of 6	0%
7+ receptions	0 of 6	0%
50+ receiving yards	0 of 6	0%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 6	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 6	0%
Scored a touchdown	2 of 6	33%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	Carries/gm	Rush yds/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	1.3	3.7	1.7	6.3	20.3	1	41%	5.2%
2025	4	0.5	4.2	0.8	4.5	19.0	1	23%	2.6%
2024	17	1.1	8.7	1.6	5.4	19.6	3	26%	4.5%

3 seasons of usage, 2024–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Braelon Allen sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the NYJ room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole New York Jets roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Do touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4