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Braxton Berrios

New York Giants · Wide receiverWR depth

Braxton Berrios has no full prior season to anchor to, so this week’s projection leans on his 3 games of current-season usage alone — treat it as a thinner read than a veteran’s.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
0.4
0.8 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
1
Anytime TD
8%

What a realistic week looks like

70%021%12345678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 1 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk4———————0.4 projected
26 wk3TEN8%0.0%00000.6 -0.6
26 wk2LA9%0.0%0000—
26 wk1DAL17%0.0%0000—
25 wk20NE7%0.0%0000—
25 wk10JAX1%0.0%0000—
25 wk9DEN—0.0%0000—
25 wk8SF29%13.2%55380—
25 wk7SEA47%6.5%31-10—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 7 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions1 of 714%
5+ receptions1 of 714%
7+ receptions0 of 70%
50+ receiving yards0 of 70%
75+ receiving yards0 of 70%
100+ receiving yards0 of 70%
Scored a touchdown0 of 70%

Career by season

Braxton Berrios: snap share and target share by season02040608010020192020202120222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far30.00.00.0011%0.0%
202551.27.41.6021%3.9%
202460.00.00.7027%1.9%
2023171.614.02.0143%6.0%
2022171.18.51.9228%5.6%
2021162.926.94.1438%12.6%
2020162.324.63.4331%12.6%
2019160.47.20.8013%3.0%

8 seasons of usage, 2019–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole New York Giants roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4