Over 13 games last season Brenton Strange averaged 3.7 receptions and 42 yards on 76% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 3.3 receptions.
Week 4 projection
Receptions
3.3
0.4 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
40
Anytime TD
21%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 6 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
How his role is trending
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk4
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
3.3 projected
26 wk3
NE
77%
18.5%
5
3
32
0
3.2 -0.2
26 wk2
DEN
83%
7.1%
2
2
17
0
—
26 wk1
CLE
68%
14.3%
3
2
23
1
—
25 wk19
BUF
88%
16.7%
5
2
9
0
—
25 wk18
TEN
62%
19.4%
6
6
52
1
—
25 wk17
IND
81%
13.5%
5
3
54
0
—
25 wk16
DEN
74%
20.0%
7
5
39
1
—
25 wk15
NYJ
82%
10.7%
3
1
26
0
—
25 wk14
IND
80%
19.4%
6
3
27
0
—
25 wk13
TEN
84%
16.0%
4
3
45
1
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 15 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
10 of 15
67%
5+ receptions
5 of 15
33%
7+ receptions
0 of 15
0%
50+ receiving yards
5 of 15
33%
75+ receiving yards
1 of 15
7%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 15
0%
Scored a touchdown
4 of 15
27%
Career by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Season
Games
Catches/gm
Rec yds/gm
Targets/gm
TDs, season
Snap share
Target share
2026 so far
3
2.3
24.0
3.3
1
76%
13.3%
2025
13
3.7
42.2
5.0
3
76%
15.7%
2024
17
2.4
24.2
3.1
2
54%
9.4%
2023
14
0.4
2.5
0.6
1
32%
2.2%
4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016